NFL Playoff Week 1
The playoffs start in a couple of days, and since picking against the spread is my claim to fame (153-103 this year. Take out Buffalo games and that number improves significantly. I don't know what it is about the Bills, it's almost like they find out if I'm betting on them or not and play accordingly. Any hard core Bills fans out there should start putting money aside now for next season. I'm willing to bet against the Bills every week for the right price.), I figured a post about this weekends games was due.
WASHINGTON +2.5 Tampa Bay
Back when I had and NFL team that I actively cheered for, the Bucs were my team. I don't care what anyone says, there was nothing better than the uniforms that the Bucs used to sport. The pirate with the big feather was pure athletics genius. It was actually around the time that they brought in the new uniforms that I stopped being a Bucs supporter. I didn't feel a loyalty anymore to one team in particular, something likely due in part to focusing on sports wagering. You can't like a team and hope they don't cover the spread at the same time. It's too morally draining. So what happens after I stop cheering for them? They go from a basement team year after year after year to a Superbowl champion. This has been a repeating pattern in my life. I hate to admit it now, but as a kid I was a Habs supporter. In hind sight that must have made my mother sick. I have never seen a bigger Leaf supporter in my life. It could be a November game against Columbus, and if she has to go out for the night then she'll tape the game and watch it at whatever hour she gets home. Now that's dedication. Anyway, when the Habs brought in Jacques Demers there was NO way I was going to be able to cheer for them anymore. Even as a kid I had a good sense of who the bad guys were in my mind. And he was enough to make me lean elsewhere. Sure enough, though, it turns out that "bad guys" can be really good coaches, and it wasn't long before another banner was hanging from the Forums rafters.
Anyway, everything suggests that I should like Tampa in this game. Better defense, better record, a win at home against Washington already this year, and the history I had as a Bucs fan. But I don't. I don't like their chances at all in this game. I'm having trouble seeing Washington win by less than 10 points even. Keep in mind, that win the Bucs put up was, what in my mind, has gone down as the infamous 2 point conversion game this year. A home team going for a risky 2 point conversion instead of overtime was a move that really made me question Grudens motives. Did he get the job done? Turns out he did. But if he hadn't Washington would have been 6-3 and Tampa would have been 5-4 at the time. And Washington would be a favourite in this game, like they should be anyway. Even ignoring their strong play in their current 5 game winning streak, they are going to come into this one mad. No one likes losing a game in the last minute. Losing it CFL style on a 2 point conversion just makes matters worse. Washington has managed to get their turnovers under control. That alone would have made the November game an easy win for them. This game goes outright to the Skins, and I'm pretty sure it'll be an ugly one.
JACKSONVILLE +7.5 New England
I'm sorry, what happened here. Did I write down the spreads on these first two games backwards? New England as a favourite, maybe. Make that a big maybe. But by more than a touchdown? Against Jacksonville? The Jags gave up 69 less points than the Pats this year. 69. And they scored almost as many. Their 4 losses were by 7, 13, 3 and 8. Of New Englands 10 wins (that's right, only 10 wins as people seem to forget) only half were won by more than a touch down, and they came against teams with a combined 28-52 record. I'm sorry Pats fans, but even if New England manages to squeek one out here, which isn't likely, it won't be by more than a touchdown. There's just no way. Don't even ask how much money I'm putting on this one.
Stay tuned, the two games with spreads that make sense will be tackled shortly...
WASHINGTON +2.5 Tampa Bay
Back when I had and NFL team that I actively cheered for, the Bucs were my team. I don't care what anyone says, there was nothing better than the uniforms that the Bucs used to sport. The pirate with the big feather was pure athletics genius. It was actually around the time that they brought in the new uniforms that I stopped being a Bucs supporter. I didn't feel a loyalty anymore to one team in particular, something likely due in part to focusing on sports wagering. You can't like a team and hope they don't cover the spread at the same time. It's too morally draining. So what happens after I stop cheering for them? They go from a basement team year after year after year to a Superbowl champion. This has been a repeating pattern in my life. I hate to admit it now, but as a kid I was a Habs supporter. In hind sight that must have made my mother sick. I have never seen a bigger Leaf supporter in my life. It could be a November game against Columbus, and if she has to go out for the night then she'll tape the game and watch it at whatever hour she gets home. Now that's dedication. Anyway, when the Habs brought in Jacques Demers there was NO way I was going to be able to cheer for them anymore. Even as a kid I had a good sense of who the bad guys were in my mind. And he was enough to make me lean elsewhere. Sure enough, though, it turns out that "bad guys" can be really good coaches, and it wasn't long before another banner was hanging from the Forums rafters.
Anyway, everything suggests that I should like Tampa in this game. Better defense, better record, a win at home against Washington already this year, and the history I had as a Bucs fan. But I don't. I don't like their chances at all in this game. I'm having trouble seeing Washington win by less than 10 points even. Keep in mind, that win the Bucs put up was, what in my mind, has gone down as the infamous 2 point conversion game this year. A home team going for a risky 2 point conversion instead of overtime was a move that really made me question Grudens motives. Did he get the job done? Turns out he did. But if he hadn't Washington would have been 6-3 and Tampa would have been 5-4 at the time. And Washington would be a favourite in this game, like they should be anyway. Even ignoring their strong play in their current 5 game winning streak, they are going to come into this one mad. No one likes losing a game in the last minute. Losing it CFL style on a 2 point conversion just makes matters worse. Washington has managed to get their turnovers under control. That alone would have made the November game an easy win for them. This game goes outright to the Skins, and I'm pretty sure it'll be an ugly one.
JACKSONVILLE +7.5 New England
I'm sorry, what happened here. Did I write down the spreads on these first two games backwards? New England as a favourite, maybe. Make that a big maybe. But by more than a touchdown? Against Jacksonville? The Jags gave up 69 less points than the Pats this year. 69. And they scored almost as many. Their 4 losses were by 7, 13, 3 and 8. Of New Englands 10 wins (that's right, only 10 wins as people seem to forget) only half were won by more than a touch down, and they came against teams with a combined 28-52 record. I'm sorry Pats fans, but even if New England manages to squeek one out here, which isn't likely, it won't be by more than a touchdown. There's just no way. Don't even ask how much money I'm putting on this one.
Stay tuned, the two games with spreads that make sense will be tackled shortly...
Very nice site! » »
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